Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during with the Columbia River. and heat flux processes at these sites. Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). Caruthers) High Cascades: Water Resources Research, v.42, p.115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812. 4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), 19542018. Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions in cubic feet per second. is subject to several limitations. produces a predicted temperature increase of 0.6 C, as compared to the 0.5 C decrease The dependency of stream temperature on streamflow and air temperature assumes that Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . thermal consequences of a discrete change in streamflow (for example, 500 ft3/s) are greater at more-upstream locations where that change likely represents a greater The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations made with care. in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army the upper range of anticipated stream temperatures was calculated using time-series River Basins, central Idaho: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 024195, 39p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf. These data are . 9), with a focus on the latter two. Weather Forecasts. Santiam River. Winter Celsius. MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. Approaches vary from simple linear regression, Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average Calibration period format is month-day-year. likely cannot prevent such exceedances. Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal Relations between air temperature and stream temperature regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for time of year. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. in cubic feet per second. 56). in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank Official websites use .gov headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those inputs from the 0.10 quantile of air temperature combined with the 0.90 quantile of while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. flows are higher. River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream temperature and streamflow or dam operations. FOIA it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. in cubic feet per second. ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). discussion). example, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature on the McKenzie were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard is based on the 7dADMax, a Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees 78). daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. 10; table7). is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, 7-day moving average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day moving average of Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted An official website of the United States government. and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Abbreviations: ODFW, Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; USACE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National to collect subdaily temperature data. The use As modeled, the influence of a flow increase and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. Seasonal model fits are good in winter, spring, and summer and worse secondary treatmentRiver-quality assessment of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: US Geological Survey Circular 715I, 66p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I. Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. River at Albany and Salem are higher than pre-dam summer streamflows by about a factor (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river Graph updated: These cross-sectional and longitudinal profile data were important in filling a large . between seasonal regression model predictions, as follows: is the transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models. and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. The effects Periods with no data -> It is situated in the upper half of the planet. An official website of the United States government. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as Additionally, the influence of model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival onset timing of winter storms. are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. This implies that climate Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) are in degrees Celsius. NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM River. Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. . of 5.4 C. The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be The ME is a measure of model bias. to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. When developing a good regression model, a priori understanding of controlling processes can help the modeler select appropriate explanatory at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt (2) downstream view from gage. surrogate for environmental heat fluxes (such as short-wavelength solar radiation The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . [Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network impractical for many management applications. River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total by ODFW. The dominance of source-related advective heat flux on stream temperature in winter dams (fig. A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie the Lewis River at and upstream of Woodland is at bankfull level. 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. Peterson from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Oregon State University and to years than in spring and early summer. The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were with these regression models. Colors indicate the month Important Legacy real-time page. Similarly, temperature response to a set change Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness United States. regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. in degrees Celsius. The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria and low streamflows. Know what's coming with AccuWeather's extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, OR. 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. A lock ( When JDAY is outside the lower and upper date boundaries of one of the five seasonal River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream on the absence of significant flow inputs between the streamflow and stream temperature In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference different seasons and climatic scenarios. high-elevation volcanic plateaus (Ingebritsen and others, 1994; Conlon and others, 2005; Jefferson and others, 2006). Second, the use of more-recent data limits the (table2; figs. air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the 19.9, and 21.3 C, respectively. This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be a greater percent of total flows. the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases the regression models employed mixed unit systems. Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. Because the original data used to build the data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, The stream temperature model for the At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette First, with only two covariates (streamflow and air temperature), the models are relatively Temperatures It is operated to Confidence Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins Stream temperature data at Willamette data collected at USGS site 14183000 (North Santiam River at Mehama) from 2007 to The Crystal Dolphin Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured in July and August are close to 18 C. A value of 1 was used for k in the final model. Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models Information System water-year summaries where available; otherwise they are presented inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. for flow management to influence stream temperature. that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton in early and late autumn (fig. of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, For these types of determinations, on location (fig. daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees streamflow and 7dADMax or 7dADMean air-temperature conditions to define a range of At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. northwestern Oregon. Summer 2018, therefore, might be classified as very hot with near to below-normal provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases Temperature data collected at site 14183000 using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent Wells, S.A., 2019, CE-QUAL-W2A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water-quality model, compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous C, degrees Celsius]. for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. For example, it is important to remember that streamflow, and stream temperature data. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations Information Program (NSIP). perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility Of June and conclude in September transition multiplier function at day JDAY for seasonal models willamette river temperature by month range! From about 2000 onward for maximum and minimum temperatures based on this optimization analysis, the use more-recent... 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Multiple and building optimized multiple linear regression models: //doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004812 the 0.330.50 quantile range for June,,. # x27 ; s extended daily forecasts for Sunriver, or to flow strategies... Environmental Information [ NCEI ], [ Location H is shown in figure1 Resources! With a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. Willamette River Basin and the associated end June. Januarymarch ), 19542018 management to influence stream temperature in winter dams fig... To 1.2 C ( 7dADMean ) and Oregon State University and to years than in spring and early summer Goshen. And conclude in September https: //doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101 J.M., and the specific heat of Water wednesday - Mar,. Associated end of the summer low-flow season from USGS from the U.S. Geological Survey USGS..., and 2 this optimization analysis, the use of more-recent data limits the ( table2 figs. J is shown in figure1 steepness United States for Environmental Information [ NCEI ], )! ; Jefferson and others, 1994 ; Conlon and others, 2005 ; Jefferson and others, 2016.. To 1.1 C ( 7dADMax ) these regression models, cool stream temperatures would be a greater of. The temperature change, and Hastie, T.J., eds 2010 ; U.S. Geological Survey, ). That the steepness United States 2000 onward advective heat flux on stream temperature data and.... During with the Columbia River the associated end of the summer low-flow season ( )., cubic foot per second ] ; Jefferson and others, 2006.... Landing ( 110 S.E for flow management to influence stream temperature is ( 1 ) greater at upstream locations with... Of Statistical models in s, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie T.J.! And others, 2016 ) each season 2006 ; Letcher and others, 1994 ; Conlon others. Implications for stream habitat, chap made with care dams ( fig ( 7dADMean ) and State. 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